General Administration of Customs import and export data will be released in October. Previously widely believed, given the current international and domestic economic situation, China's exports likely to fall in the fourth quarter. Therefore, as the first month of the fourth quarter of this year's foreign trade data, both to reflect the latest trends in import and export, or provide policy direction for the pulse basis, are particularly critical.
However, although the data has not been officially released, from the Minister of Commerce Chen Deming in his speech a few days ago already reflects. Chen Deming has received in Cannes, France surplus and foreign media to respond to questions that "from January to October this year, more than 24% growth in trade, the surplus has decreased by 15%."
Prior to Customs data show that from January to September this year, China's foreign trade value of $ 2.67744 trillion, up 24.6 percent over last year. $ 107.1 billion trade surplus narrowed 10.6%. September month, China's import and export value of $ 324.83 billion, of which exports $ 169.67 billion, up 17.1%; imports 155.16 billion U.S. dollars, up 20.9%; trade surplus of 14.51 billion U.S. dollars, narrowed 12.4%.
Reporters rough calculation, China's import and export value in October month is about $ 290.4 billion, a surplus of about $ 18.5 billion, while exports and imports have both decreased. This is not surprising. On Friday from the 110th Canton Fair closed the news conference, showed that European and American buyers to be increased, but the wait inquiry more than the actual turnover of the Spring Fair this year (below) decreased by 19% and 24% .
In contrast, Japan's demand for the release after the earthquake, to be buyers and turnover increased by 29% and 28%. India, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies, turnover growth of 9%. Africa, Asia, Latin America and other potential market turnover increased by 39%. Order by emerging market growth, the Canton Fair total export turnover of $ 37.9 billion transactions, a slight increase of 3%.
Expert analysis, the current international economic environment is becoming more and more severe. U.S. and European economies, the pattern of weak growth, there is no signs of improvement, the European debt crisis on China's exports is likely to continue to ferment in the future, even more negative impact on China's exports significantly. Secondly, although the order growth in Asia, but the risk of emerging market demand the early fall, is expected to post on China's exports will be less pulling power. Downside risks to the fourth quarter of this year, imports and exports increased.
Chen Deming said in Cannes, France, China will import this year, about 1600 to 1700 billion U.S. dollars of goods, the next five years, China's total imports will exceed $ 10 trillion, is expected to become the world's largest market. He also expects full-year surplus has dropped significantly. He also pointed out that the current RMB exchange rate basically in a reasonable range. China's trade surplus to GDP ratio of just over 1 percentage point, if the transaction with international capital, the international balance of payments surplus to GDP ratio is far less than 3%.
According to the National Customs import and export monitoring and warning system predicted value of China's foreign trade this year will be over 3.5 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 19%. Annual trade surplus of about $ 170 billion, essentially flat or slightly lower than in 2010, the balanced development of import and export situation will not change.
However, although the data has not been officially released, from the Minister of Commerce Chen Deming in his speech a few days ago already reflects. Chen Deming has received in Cannes, France surplus and foreign media to respond to questions that "from January to October this year, more than 24% growth in trade, the surplus has decreased by 15%."
Prior to Customs data show that from January to September this year, China's foreign trade value of $ 2.67744 trillion, up 24.6 percent over last year. $ 107.1 billion trade surplus narrowed 10.6%. September month, China's import and export value of $ 324.83 billion, of which exports $ 169.67 billion, up 17.1%; imports 155.16 billion U.S. dollars, up 20.9%; trade surplus of 14.51 billion U.S. dollars, narrowed 12.4%.
Reporters rough calculation, China's import and export value in October month is about $ 290.4 billion, a surplus of about $ 18.5 billion, while exports and imports have both decreased. This is not surprising. On Friday from the 110th Canton Fair closed the news conference, showed that European and American buyers to be increased, but the wait inquiry more than the actual turnover of the Spring Fair this year (below) decreased by 19% and 24% .
In contrast, Japan's demand for the release after the earthquake, to be buyers and turnover increased by 29% and 28%. India, Russia, Brazil and other emerging economies, turnover growth of 9%. Africa, Asia, Latin America and other potential market turnover increased by 39%. Order by emerging market growth, the Canton Fair total export turnover of $ 37.9 billion transactions, a slight increase of 3%.
Expert analysis, the current international economic environment is becoming more and more severe. U.S. and European economies, the pattern of weak growth, there is no signs of improvement, the European debt crisis on China's exports is likely to continue to ferment in the future, even more negative impact on China's exports significantly. Secondly, although the order growth in Asia, but the risk of emerging market demand the early fall, is expected to post on China's exports will be less pulling power. Downside risks to the fourth quarter of this year, imports and exports increased.
Chen Deming said in Cannes, France, China will import this year, about 1600 to 1700 billion U.S. dollars of goods, the next five years, China's total imports will exceed $ 10 trillion, is expected to become the world's largest market. He also expects full-year surplus has dropped significantly. He also pointed out that the current RMB exchange rate basically in a reasonable range. China's trade surplus to GDP ratio of just over 1 percentage point, if the transaction with international capital, the international balance of payments surplus to GDP ratio is far less than 3%.
According to the National Customs import and export monitoring and warning system predicted value of China's foreign trade this year will be over 3.5 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 19%. Annual trade surplus of about $ 170 billion, essentially flat or slightly lower than in 2010, the balanced development of import and export situation will not change.
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